From gut feel to market intelligence: EntryMapper at Norrsken Barcelona

Author
Pieter Swart
Co-Founder & CEO
May 12, 2026

Speaking at Norrsken Barcelona was a great reminder of how relevant, yet misunderstood, international expansion still is.

In a room full of founders, operators, and growth-minded teams, we discussed one of the most important questions a company can ask once it picks up traction:

Where and how should we expand?

It sounds simple, but in reality it is one of the highest-stakes decisions a startup can make. It can potentially become a pressure test for the whole company. A new market introduces different buyers, different sales cycles, different competitors, and different regulations. When those assumptions are not tested early, teams can spend months building, without real results. 

Why expansion decisions often go wrong

In our work with founders and go-to-market leaders, we often see expansion decisions being driven by weak signals, and they seem convincing initially.

  • “We have one customer in Germany, so Germany must be next.”
  • “The US is the largest market, so we should go there first.”
  • “A board member has a strong network in Spain, so Spain is attractive.”

Inbound interest, network access, market size, and founder preference can all matter. The problem is when they become the sole criteria.

A single customer is not proof of scalable demand. A large market is not automatically accessible. A warm network does not guarantee repeatable sales. Personal preference should not outweigh customer fit, regulation, competition, and execution feasibility.

What better expansion planning looks like

The opposite of weak-signal expansion is structured prioritisation. A better process starts broad and then narrows down the right markets.

First, you build a longlist of potential markets. Then you define the criteria that actually matter for your business. These criteria could include market size, market growth, customer segment density, competitive intensity, regulation, partner availability, localisation needs, and cost of entry. Then you weigh those criteria based on your company’s priorities.

For example, a regulated healthtech company should not evaluate markets the same way as a B2B SaaS company. A hardware company with distribution partners should not use the same criteria as a pure software company selling remotely. A company preparing for fundraising may need to think differently from one optimising for near-term revenue.

Expansion is more than choosing a country

One of the biggest mistakes in expansion planning is treating market selection as the final answer. Once a market is shortlisted, the real work begins.

A strong expansion plan should answer questions such as:

  • Is the market actually large enough for our specific offer?
  • Which customer segment has the strongest pain and willingness to pay?
  • Who are the local competitors, and where is the white space?
  • Which partnerships or channels could accelerate entry?
  • What regulatory, operational, or localisation barriers matter?
  • Who should we target first?
  • What should we validate before hiring locally or committing major spend?

The key message from Norrsken

Our main message to founders was simple:

Do not expand because a market feels obvious. Expand because you can explain why that market is the right next move.

That explanation should be data-backed, practical, and aligned with your company’s resources. It should help your team, board, investors, and future hires understand not only where you are going, but why you are going there and how you plan to win.

From ambition to execution

Norrsken Barcelona brings together founders and builders with ambitious ideas, many of whom are thinking beyond their first market from day one.

For ambitious companies, international expansion is often necessary. But it should not be rushed. The companies that scale best are not always the ones that expand fastest. They are the ones that choose the right markets, sequence them smartly, and enter with a plan that is specific enough.

At EntryMapper, that is what we help companies do: move from gut feel to expansion intelligence. If you’re planning to scale-up, get in touch with us to plan your next market expansion!

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